Q3 Venture Trends - Results

On June 1st, we asked the smartest people in venture a simple question: which trends will actually define Q3 2026?

150+ GPs, LPs, and venture ecosystem leaders have now voted. (And the picks just shifted.)

The data is moving in real time. Autonomous Agents just overtook AI Cofounders for the #1 spot. The exit window is reopening. The bear case is still in the basement.

Voting is still open. These numbers are a snapshot, not a verdict. They will keep moving as more managers weigh in, and we want your read in the mix before we break it all down live on July 2nd.

Cast your vote now and lock your seat for July 2nd:

The room is making one giant bet: AI

It is not close. The top four trends are all artificial intelligence, bunched together at the top like a breakaway pack.

• Autonomous Agents: 27%

• AI-Powered Investment Tools: 25%

• AI of Everything: 23%

• AI Cofounders: 23%

Remember, every voter only gets three picks out of 32 options. Having four AI themes all clear 23% is a landslide. The people funding the future are betting the future is agentic.

The biggest shift since our last update: Autonomous Agents took the #1 spot from AI Cofounders. The room is increasingly betting on AI that acts, not just AI that codes. That is a real tell about where the next wave of breakout startups is going to come from.

Exits are back on the board

The first trend outside the AI cluster is IPO & M&A Reopening at 21%, landing at number five overall. After years of a frozen exit window, more than one in five managers now think the thaw is the story of the quarter. Pair that with Increased Secondary Liquidity at 12% and Rebound in VC Distributions at 8%, and the picture is sharper than ever: a market that believes capital is finally about to start moving again.

Here is where it gets interesting: the bubble debate

This is the tension worth arguing about. AI swept the top of the board. But AI Bubble sits at just 13%, in eighth place. AGI Concerns? Dead last at 1%.

So the consensus is loud and specific: AI is everywhere, AI is real, and almost nobody in this group is willing to call it a bubble. That is either hard-won conviction from the people closest to the deals, or it is exactly the kind of agreement that shows up right before a cycle turns. We genuinely do not know yet. That is the debate we will be having live on July 2nd, and we want your voice in it.

The trends nobody is seeing

The bottom of the list is just as revealing as the top. The entire bear case is sitting in the basement:

• AGI Concerns: 1%

• Investment Slowdown: 2%

• Portfolio Markdowns: 2%

• Growth of Continuation Funds: 3%

• Longer Exit Timelines: 3%

• Excessive Dry Powder: 3%

If you believe the crowd is usually wrong at the extremes, the most contrarian position in venture right now is simple: bet on a slowdown. Almost no one in this survey is.

The emerging manager moment is real

Rise of Emerging Managers came in at 15%, right behind Geopolitical Uncertainty at 16% in the #6 and #7 spots. New and smaller funds catching the LP commitments that brand names used to lock up early is no longer a fringe view. It is a top-tier trend, and it lines up with everything we are seeing inside our own programs.

Now we want your read

These results are based on 150+ responses, and they are still moving. Every new vote shifts the board. We are watching to see whether the Autonomous Agents lead holds, whether AI Cofounders fights its way back to #1, and whether the bubble crowd starts catching up as more managers weigh in.

Cast your three votes below and tell us what you are actually seeing in the market. Then RSVP to join us live on July 2nd, where we will break down the final results, debate the bubble question, and walk through the practical strategies for capitalizing on Q3.

On July 2nd, the entire VC Lab community will be on a live call to break down the final results, debate the bubble question, and walk through what these trends actually mean for your fund. This is the single most important quarterly call we run, and past Q1 and Q2 events sold out. RSVP here to lock your seat before this one fills.

Keep voting. The smartest read on Q3 is the one we build together.